Latest data in any panel: 31 Oct 2026 · Last rebuild 31 Oct 2026, 10:28 AM HKT. Panels differ — each figure below carries its own quote date.
US Treasury curve, risk dials with five-year percentiles, five FX pairs against the dollar, and a currency-only EM pressure gauge. US rates: U.S. Treasury par yields, 30 Oct. Market data this build: levels: ECB + TradingView ×10, TradingView ×9 · 5y history: ECB ×11, IBKR ×5, EIA ×1, Coinbase ×1 — latest print 31 Oct. Every figure carries its own quote date and names its source; anything served from cache says so. A tile dated earlier than the newest is a real lag in that feed, not a formatting choice. No commentary, no forecasts — numbers and the tape.
The five most traded dollar pairs, picked on turnover rather than opinion. Every move column is the local currency against the dollar, so positive means weaker and euro or sterling strength prints negative. Each row prints its own spot date; the latest in this board is 31 Oct. The five-year percentile series behind these rows ends 28 Oct, so the percentile column lags the spot column by design (served from cache — the ECB host did not answer this build).
The euro has lost the most ground in a month, 1.53% against the dollar · 3 of the five are stronger, led by the Swiss franc up 1.13% · the outlier is the yen at 86 of 100, near the weakest it has been in five years.
| Pair | Spot | 1d % | 1w % | 1m % | YTD % | 5y percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD Euro area as of 31 Oct 04:59 HKT | 1.116 | +0.17% | +0.52% | +1.53% | +5.01% | 39 |
| USD/JPY Japan as of 31 Oct 04:59 HKT | 157.5 | -0.10% | +0.47% | +0.10% | +0.52% | 86 |
| GBP/USD United Kingdom as of 31 Oct 07:36 HKT | 1.339 | -0.13% | +0.05% | -0.98% | +0.54% | 24 |
| USD/CHF Switzerland as of 31 Oct 07:36 HKT | 0.8249 | +0.12% | +0.61% | -1.13% | +4.05% | 27 |
| USD/HKD Hong Kong [HKMA peg 7.75–7.85] as of 31 Oct 05:58 HKT | 7.844 | -0.02% | +0.10% | -0.01% | +0.78% | 78 |
Heat and bar on 1m and YTD only, scaled to 2%: red = local currency weaker. Spot and the move columns are the live TradingView print. The 5y percentile reads 0 to 100, where 100 is the weakest the currency has been in five years and 0 the strongest, from the ECB daily fixing against its own five-year range. Turnover shares (BIS Triennial, April 2025): EUR/USD 21.2%, USD/JPY 14.3%, GBP/USD 7.6%, USD/CHF 4.9%, USD/HKD 3.6%. USD/CNY is larger than the bottom three at 8.1% and is read in the gauge below.
The five most traded emerging-market currencies, ranked worst to best by their one-month move against the dollar. A turnover test, not a judgement: the rest of the EM complex trades too thinly to rank. Each row prints its own spot date; the latest here is 31 Oct. The five-year percentile series behind these rows ends 28 Oct, so the percentile column lags the spot column by design (served from cache — the ECB host did not answer this build).
BRL has lost the most ground in a month, 4.93% · KRW is the strongest, up 1.70% · INR is the outlier on the five-year range at 92 of 100, near its weakest in five years.
| # | EM | Spot | 1m vs USD | YTD vs USD | 5y percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BRL Brazil as of 31 Oct 05:30 HKT | 5.440 | +4.93% | -0.68% | 71 |
| 2 | MXN Mexico as of 31 Oct 07:35 HKT | 18.74 | +3.80% | +4.15% | 53 |
| 3 | CNY China as of 30 Oct 23:16 HKT | 6.653 | -0.76% | -4.85% | 12 |
| 4 | INR India as of 30 Oct 19:22 HKT | 94.94 | -0.92% | +5.56% | 92 |
| 5 | KRW Korea as of 31 Oct 04:59 HKT | 1,333 | -1.70% | -7.57% | 40 |
Depreciation is positive and red; bar length scales to 4% in a month. This is a currency-stress proxy, nothing more — not a credit, reserves or current-account measure, and we have no source for those on this build, so they are not shown.
The ten largest economies ranked by absolute nominal GDP in US dollars — total output, not output per head — with each one's share of world GDP beside it and a rest of world line, so the column adds to 100% — then Mexico, Australia and Hong Kong on their own for reference. Every money figure is in US dollars at current prices. Alongside size: GDP per head, population, government debt as a share of GDP, then real growth for 2025 and 2024, and inflation.
| IG HY |
# | Country | Rating S&P · Moody's · Fitch |
GDP (US$tn) | % of world | GDP per capita (US$) | Population (m) | Govt debt (% GDP) |
Real growth 2025 |
Real growth 2024 |
Inflation 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IG | 1 | United States | AA+·Aa1·AA+ | 30.8 | 26.0% | 90,027 | 342 | 124 | +2.16% | +2.79% | 2.7% |
| IG | 2 | China | A+·A1·A | 19.5 | 16.5% | 13,862 | 1,407 | 99 | +4.96% | +4.96% | 0.0% |
| IG | 3 | Germany | AAA·Aaa·AAA | 5.1 | 4.3% | 60,496 | 83 | 63 | +0.24% | -0.50% | 2.3% |
| IG | 4 | Japan | A+·A1·A | 4.4 | 3.7% | 35,951 | 123 | 205 | +1.19% | -0.24% | 3.2% |
| IG | 5 | United Kingdom | AA·Aa3·AA- | 4.0 | 3.4% | 57,602 | 69 | 102 | +1.39% | +1.08% | 3.4% |
| IG | 6 | India | BBB·Baa3·BBB- | 4.0 | 3.3% | 2,702 | 1,464 | 84 | +7.57% | +7.10% | 2.0% |
| IG | 7 | France | A+·Aa3·A+ | 3.4 | 2.8% | 48,986 | 69 | 116 | +0.84% | +1.19% | 0.9% |
| — | 8 | Russia | ? | 2.6 | 2.2% | 17,547 | 144 | 17 | +1.00% | +4.92% | 8.7% |
| IG | 9 | Italy | BBB+·Baa2·BBB+ | 2.6 | 2.2% | 43,309 | 59 | 137 | +0.54% | +0.78% | 1.6% |
| IG | 10 | Canada | AAA·Aaa·AA+ | 2.3 | 2.0% | 55,698 | 42 | 114 | +1.74% | +2.05% | 2.1% |
| — | 11 | Rest of world | — | 39.8 | 33.7% | 9,025 | 4,414 | 58 | +3.00% | +2.69% | 6.8% |
| IG | 13 | Mexico $1,833bn · 13th in the world | BBB·Baa3·BBB- | 1.8 | 1.5% | 13,889 | 132 | 62 | +0.56% | +1.35% | 3.8% |
| IG | 15 | Australia $1,799bn · 15th in the world | AAA·Aaa·AAA | 1.8 | 1.5% | 65,130 | 28 | 52 | +1.35% | +1.37% | 2.8% |
| IG | 38 | Hong Kong $427bn · 38th in the world | AA+·Aa3·AA- | 0.4 | 0.4% | 56,983 | 7 | 12 | +3.49% | +2.63% | 1.4% |
All figures in US dollars at current prices. GDP, GDP per capita, population and real GDP growth: World Bank WDI, 2025, dataset updated 8 Oct 2026. Inflation (annual average CPI) and general government gross debt: IMF WEO, 2025. Real GDP growth in constant 2015 US$. Share of world GDP is each economy over the World Bank world total of $118.4tn. Rest of world is derived, not sourced: World Bank world totals minus these ten, so the shares add to 100%; its inflation and debt are GDP-weighted averages across the 185 other IMF-reporting economies. Mexico (13th), Australia (15th) and Hong Kong (38th) are shown for reference and are already counted inside Rest of world, so they are not added twice. Ratings are each agency's own long-term foreign-currency grade, checked 29 Oct 2026, and are never converted between scales. Russia is NR: S&P, Moody's and Fitch all withdrew coverage in March 2022 after the EU banned rating Russian entities. Outlook not stable: France (Moody's Aa3, negative); Italy (S&P BBB+, positive); Mexico (S&P BBB, negative). IG/HY is derived, S&P first, Fitch second, Moody's third.
Treasury par yields, close of business 30 Oct 2026, against 30 Oct 2025. Maturity across, yield up.
| Tenor | 2Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level % | 4.56 | 4.71 | 4.94 | 5.31 |
| 1d bp | -5bp | -7bp | -4bp | -1bp |
| 1m bp | -32bp | -38bp | -35bp | -33bp |
| 1y bp | +95bp | +99bp | +83bp | +66bp |
2s10s +38bp (+1 1d) · 3m10y +78bp (-2 1d) · 5s30s +60bp (+6 1d)
Move in bp (0.01pp); spread brackets show the 1d move. Negative 2s10s = inverted curve.
Levels are the live TradingView print. 5y percentile is the share of daily closes in the last five years at or below today's level, computed only where a genuine free 5-year series exists — the source and its last date are in the Source column. ≥80 = stretched high (red) · ≤20 = stretched low (blue) · 20–80 = mid-range. MOVE is the one dial with no free 5-year history, so it shows n/a — no free 5y series rather than a number borrowed from a different instrument. WTI's percentile is ranked inside the EIA Cushing spot series at its own last close, shown in the cell, because the level beside it is a front-month future.
| Dial | Level | 1d % | 1w % | 1m % | YTD % | 5y percentile | Source · percentile date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX CBOE volatility index as of 31 Oct 04:15 HKT | 19.41 | +12.91% | +1.20% | +21.85% | +30.71% | 63.5 5y percentile from IBKR VIX closes | TradingView level · IBKR 5y series to 28 Oct |
| MOVE ICE BofA MOVE · rate volatility as of 31 Oct 04:17 HKT | 100.21 | +7.12% | -4.72% | -4.24% | +56.66% | n/a — no free 5y series live level only | TradingView level |
| DXY US dollar index · DXY as of 31 Oct 04:59 HKT | 101.96 | +0.11% | +0.39% | +0.55% | +3.79% | 47.2 5y percentile from ECB-derived index (daily fixing) | TradingView level · ECB 5y series to 28 Oct |
| Gold Gold · spot US$/oz as of 31 Oct 04:59 HKT | 3,875.64 | -3.60% | -3.77% | -6.83% | -10.42% | 78.5 5y percentile from IBKR spot XAUUSD | TradingView level · IBKR 5y series to 28 Oct |
| WTI WTI crude · front month US$/bbl as of 31 Oct 07:39 HKT | 104.12 | +2.08% | +5.07% | +15.18% | +81.36% | 92.1 EIA spot close 27 Oct 5y percentile from EIA WTI Cushing spot | TradingView level · EIA 5y series to 27 Oct |
| US HY ETF iShares iBoxx HY · HYG as of 31 Oct 07:59 HKT | 77.43 | -0.19% | +0.70% | -0.05% | -4.08% | 41.7 5y percentile from IBKR HYG closes | TradingView level · IBKR 5y series to 28 Oct |
| EM USD debt ETF iShares JPM EM USD · EMB as of 31 Oct 07:30 HKT | 92.05 | -0.22% | +0.22% | +0.79% | -4.61% | 62.3 5y percentile from IBKR EMB closes | TradingView level · IBKR 5y series to 28 Oct |
| S&P 500 S&P 500 index as of 31 Oct 04:47 HKT | 7,580.07 | -1.82% | -0.75% | -1.42% | +10.21% | 94.9 5y percentile from IBKR S&P 500 closes | TradingView level · IBKR 5y series to 28 Oct |
Feed status: WTI, HYG, EMB and S&P 500 are delayed 10–15 min; everything else is live.
Bitcoin card — two dates, stated separately: the level is the live TradingView scan (CRYPTO:BTCUSD, update_mode = streaming), taken 31 Oct 10:29 HKT. The 5y percentile is ranked inside Coinbase Exchange daily closes (BTC-USD) over the full five calendar years to 31 Oct — 1,826 daily closes, since crypto prints every day rather than only trading days. The percentile can lag the spot, which is why both dates print.
5y percentile = share of daily closes since Nov 2021 strictly below today's level.
1d/1w/1m/YTD are TradingView performance columns (1w = 5 sessions, 1m = 1 month). High VIX/MOVE percentile = more stress; high gold/DXY percentile = stretched; for the S&P and the HY/EM ETFs a high percentile means strength, not stress. DXY: the level is the live index; its 5y percentile comes from an ECB-derived index (daily fixing), which is a 14:15 CET snapshot and therefore not the live print. An ETF price is never printed as an index level or as US$/oz.
US rates and the Fed, ECB / BoE / BoJ, China data, EM central banks, global inflation. One story per topic — wire rewrites collapsed, outlets joined. Past 21 days.
Ranked by defaulted face value. These five are 85% of the $225.6bn defaulted since 2016; 4 of 14 cases are still open, holding $91.1bn. As of 29 Oct 2026.
| # | Sovereign | US$bn | % ext. debt |
Ext. debt | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina2020 | 65.0 | 27% | 242.4 | resolvedSep 2020 |
| 2 | Venezuela2017 | 59.0 | n/a | n/a | Adviser in place, no termsCenterview adviser, 16 Oct |
| 3 | Lebanon2020 | 31.0 | 46% | 67.4 | No agreed termsNo talks since 2020 |
| 4 | Ukraine2022 | 20.5 | 11% | 193.5 | resolvedSep 2024 |
| 5 | Ecuador2020 | 17.4 | 29% | 60.4 | resolvedAug 2020 |
Face values per Reuters and Octus, not market marks — defaulted paper trades far below par.
External debt is World Bank WDI 2024 (Venezuela files nothing, so n/a). Senegal is excluded: it has not defaulted.
Sources: Bank of Canada–Bank of England Sovereign Default Database (2025 update); Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable progress reports; IMF statements; contemporaneous wire reporting.
Argentina: Holdout creditors led by Paul Singer's Elliott Management (NML Capital) litigated the 2001 default for 15 years and settled Feb 2016 for $4.65bn; the exchange on this row is the 2020 one. (Reuters, 29 Feb 2016; NYT DealBook, 25 Apr 2016)
Venezuela: Creditors are the Venezuela Creditor Committee — GMO, Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, Mangart Capital and Morgan Stanley Investment Management lead it, holding about 37% of the defaulted bonds ($22bn+); Orrick and Houlihan Lokey advise. (Reuters 9 Feb 2026; Bloomberg 27 Jul & 9 Oct 2026; Octus)
Lebanon: Ad Hoc Group: Aberdeen, Amundi, BlackRock, RBC BlueBay, GMO, Greylock, Mangart, Mesarete and Morgan Stanley IM on its steering committee, advised by Houlihan Lokey and White & Case; Lazard and Cleary Gottlieb advise Beirut. (Ad Hoc Group statement, 8 May 2025; Octus 2025; L'Orient Today)
Ukraine: Ad hoc committee of Amundi, BlackRock and Amia Capital, about 25% of the eurobonds, advised by PJT and Weil; the 2024 deal cut principal 37%. GDP warrants (Aurelius, VR Capital) are a separate group. (Ukraine MoF release, 22 Jul 2024; Bloomberg 24 Jul 2024)
Ecuador: Ad Hoc Group of AllianceBernstein, Ashmore, BlackRock, BlueBay and Wellington, over half the bonds, advised by White & Case, settled; Amundi, Contrarian, GMO and T. Rowe Price ran a rival committee and sued. (Ad Hoc Group release, 20 Jul 2020; Reuters 13 Jul 2020)